quantifying risk

[pmkb]

There are a number of methods available for simulating risk and projecting a "most likely" project completion (Pert, Monte Carlo, project crashing, event chain, critical chain, etc.). Do you use any of these methods? How successful have they been?

One big flaw I see with them all is that they are all input/output systems. They only consider risk factors that are built into the system. Murphy's Law suggests that the right risk factors will likely not be anticipated. What's your experience?

[Bernard]

I do not use those risk analysis tools. Turnarounds are too unpredictable to assess every possible contingency/problem IMO.

[jjf_1975]

I'm slowly pulling my hair out with regards to risk analysis. IMHO if project managers spent more time MANAGING risk and less time having to REPORT risk...projects would be far better off.

A good Project Manager (or Control Account Manager) can tell you if X event happens it will have Y effect in time & cost.

Alternatively...we can get them to 3 point estimate everything...run it through a monte carlo simulator...update the data until the monte carlo simulation produces the report proves the project can be completed within 90% confidence of the schedule requirements. We can then show that report to management who then believe we can meet the project objectives! And the time that it takes to produce these reports can distract the project team leads from doing their job of actually managing their project/control account!!!

cynical I know...but lets face it...risk analysis really is a reporting mechanism and rarely does it produce anything which we didn't already know. If we didn't know about the risk, then it wouldn't make it into the tool, therefore would not be analysed. Risk analysis (monte carlo) just plots the result on a nice graph for us so we can get that all important rubber stamp from management that we have analysed the risk in the schedule

rubbish in / rubbish out....and if your team leads are surprised by the monte carlo results...then they probably aren't the right people to be leading the project!

Regards
Joanne

[pmkb]

No need to hold back Joanne. Tell us how you really feel.

OK. So far no one has admitted to using any of these tools for risk analysis. Has anyone found them useful?

[norzul150667]

I've posted some info regarding our experience in using monte carlo
in Eng-Tips Forum

http://www.eng-tips.com/viewthread.c...=141323&page=1

Thanks

norzul

[daveforrestuk]

I recently wrote a dissertation paper on project risk management for the Planning Engineers Organisation. If you would like a copy PM me*



Regards


D.Forrest MPEO

President of Primavera UK Usergroup

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